Potato: Growth in Production Accelerates

Potato production in developing countries entered a new, rapidly expanding phase in the 1990s. Output surpassed 100 million tons by mid-decade, up from less than 30 million tons in the early 1960s. For the last ten years, potato production has increased at an annual average rate of 4.5%, area planted at 2.4%. More remarkable still is that as potato output continues to expand, the growth rate for area planted and production continued to accelerate (Fig. 1). As a result, the growth rate in potato production has nearly doubled over the last twenty years. Confounding many commodity projections specialists, growth rates for area planted have also accelerated.

Potato growth rates have not only been increasing, but they have exceeded the growth rates for many other major food commodities in developing countries in recent years (Fig. 2). As growth in production for maize, wheat, and rice slowed—in some cases (e.g., wheat) considerably—in the last decade, potato output surged ahead, thereby increasing potato's relative importance, particularly in Asia.

According to the latest FAO data (FAOSTAT, September 1998), potato production worldwide stands at 293 million tons and covers more that 18 million hectares. With the break-up of the former Soviet Union, China is now the world's largest potato producer. India ranks number four. Although potato production in Europe has fallen since the early 1960s, this decline has been more than offset by the growth in Asia, Africa and Latin America, thereby explaining the rise in global potato tonnage.

These prolonged and increasingly more pronounced divergent production trends in Europe versus developing countries reflect fundamental shifts underway in the global potato economy. In the last four years alone, the share of worldwide potato production produced in developing countries rose from 31% to 36%. This latest development merely accelerates the secular shift in the location of production underway since the early 1960s (Fig. 3). In so doing, it reaffirms the increasing importance of potatoes as a source of food, employment, and income in Asia, Africa and Latin America.

Potato in Global Diets

Consumption in developing countries also increased: from 9 kg/capita in 1961-63 to 14 kg/capita in 1995-97 according to FAOSTAT (June 1998). These averages are still but a fraction of per capita consumption levels of 86 kg/yr in Europe or 63 kg/yr in North America, suggesting that ample room exists for continued consumption increases. Recent statistics suggest that this trend is already underway in parts of the developing world.

In Asia, per capita potato consumption jumped from 12 kg/capita in 1991-92 to 14 kg/capita in 1994-96— a 16% increase in per capita terms over the last three years. In Africa, annual average consumption remained stable over the same period at 8 kg/ person as continued population growth absorbed all of the increase in aggregate production. For Latin America, per capita consumption for the region as a whole rose by nearly 15% in recent years from 21kg/yr to 24 kg/yr. Moreover, consumption increases in certain countries also merit mention, in particular, in Colombia, from 47 kg/yr in 1991-92 to 56 kg/yr in 1994-96; and in Peru, from 42 kg/yr in 1991-92 to 63 kg/yr in 1994-96, recovering sharply from the earlier downward trend in utilization.

Regional Production Trends

Asia. Growth in potato production in Asia in the 1990s has been spectacular, averaging 5.1% from 1985-87 to 1995-97. This represents a 20% higher rate than that for the entire period 1961-63 to 1995-97, suggesting that the pace of output increases has already accelerated.

Several countries in fact have witnessed remarkable acceleration in recent years. These include China with a 6.2% average annual rate of growth in potato production over the last 10 years; Indonesia 10.6%; Nepal 8.8%. India and Pakistan saw their growth rates decline but they were still impressive at 4.6% and 6.0%, respectively.

With access to irrigation, chemical inputs such as fertilizers, continued expansion in postharvest infrastructure in the form of roads and cold storage facilities (in India), producers continue to find potatoes an extremely attractive crop to grow. Strong demand both in the countryside and in rapidly growing urban areas continues to stimulate increases in area planted. China witnessed a growth rate in area planted of 3.3%, Indonesia 7.1%, Nepal 4.1% over the period 1985-87 to 1995-97. Productivity increases also accelerated lately to an average annual rate of 2.8%, up from 1.6% for the entire period.

Africa. Egypt, South Africa, Algeria, and Morocco produce more than 80% of all the potatoes in the region. Growth rates in production have been strong for each of these countries, with that for Egypt at over 5% per annum since 1961-63. Expanding access to irrigation has been a major factor facilitating this growth in output and high average yields (14-28t/ha). Rising incomes, tourism, and, for North Africa producers, a lucrative winter export market have been added catalysts.

Latin America and the Caribbean. Potato production continued to expand over the last three decades at an annual rate of 2.2%. In recent years, growth in area planted has rebounded particularly in Ecuador 3.0%, Peru 2.0%, and Brazil 1.0%. As a result, output has risen sharply in these same countries: Peru 3.7%, Brazil 2.8%, and Ecuador 2.0%. However, the expansion of potatoes to less favored areas slowed the rate of improvement in yields. Growth rates in potato production in Mexico have been well over 3.0% throughout both periods with the most recent growth rate for yields 4.1% among the highest for all developing countries.

Globalization and Potatoes

Many developing countries have recently become much more integrated into the international potato trade. This phenomenon is partly the result of the worldwide trend toward lower tariffs and non-tariff barriers and the emergence of regional trading blocs. Unfortunately, the volume and value of such trade is not always readily apparent because published trade figures frequently do not include data on processed potato products (e.g., frozen french fries, chips, starch). Nevertheless, recent studies suggest that many countries will need to accelerate the development and diffusion of yield-increasing technology if they want to remain competitive in the emerging global market for potatoes in the years ahead.

Potatoes and the Environment

Potato production in some developing countries involves the use of large quantities of chemical pesticides. With the advent of new strains of late blight, pressure to sustain food production and preserve the environment is increasing in noteworthy fashion. Efforts are well underway to meet this challenge by developing not only late blight resistant varieties but also systems of integrated disease management that put traditional farmers' practices to control potato diseases to optimal use.

The Potato in the 21st Century

Recent collaborative research involving IFPRI and CIP has included a detailed analysis of historical trends and future projections for potatoes in developing countries. Estimated growth rates in potato production for the period 1993-2020 are 2.02% according to the baseline scenario–based more on past projections, and 2.71% for the high demand and production scenario–based more on historical trends. As these projections were done as part of a global model for the world's major food commodities, they also permit estimates of the future value of production. These calculations show that the potato will most likely maintain, if not increase, its relative economic importance in the food basket for developing countries in the decades ahead.

CIP Online

For more information about potatoes, please consult the CIP website at http://www.cipotato.org. There you will find complete copies of CIP's most recent Annual and Program Reports, information regarding ongoing collaborative research projects in a variety of disciplines and locations around the world, and lists of recent publications by CIP staff on topics related to potato production, marketing, utilization, and trade.

The Role of CIP

CIP's strategy begins by identifying, in close association with its clients, needs for research and technology. If these are addressed elsewhere, the Center makes the appropriate information available through its cooperative linkages. If not, comparative advantage and priority of needs are analyzed to determine CIP's approach: encourage the pursuit of the necessary research in other institutions; promote research collaboration among countries; conduct appropriate research in cooperation with national agricultural research systems (NARS) colleagues; or initiate specialized research in the Center's areas of comparative advantage.

The effective transfer of research results, technology, and capabilities to partner countries is accomplished through training, information dissemination, and collaborative research designed to assist NARS in reaching and maintaining their fullest potential.

CIP is a non-profit, autonomous scientific institution established in 1971 by agreement with the Government of Peru. CIP is one of 16 international research and training centers supported by the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR). The CGIAR is sponsored by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), and the World Bank, and comprises 58 countries, international organizations, and private foundations.